Chinese J-15s Target Japanese F-15s; Tokyo Protest Spurs 3-Month Airline Refund Extension

Beijing and Tokyo have lurched between rapprochement (1978 Peace & Friendship Treaty) and flare-ups such as the 2010 Senkaku trawler collision and the 2013 fire-control radar incident. The current episode, triggered by PM Takaichi’s Taiwan pledge, echoes the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis when Asian airlines also slashed routes amid sabre-rattling. Structurally, it reflects two converging trends: China’s blue-water navy asserting presence via carriers, and Japan’s post-2022 remilitarisation that links Taiwan’s fate to its own security. On a century horizon, the incident is a data-point in the slow erosion of the 1972 normalization framework—tourism, once a stabiliser with 6.9 m Chinese visitors to Japan in 2024, can now be dialled up or down as diplomatic leverage. Whether this moment hardens an East Asian armed deterrence spiral or fades like the 2013 radar spat depends less on the rhetoric than on the institutionalisation of crisis hotlines and the economic interdependence both sides still depend on.