Zelensky Warns of Russian Plans for a “Year of War” in 2026, Presses EU-US for Harder Action

Great-power wars often pivot on whether outside patrons believe escalation is inevitable: in July 1914 Serbia counted on Russian backing, while the 1938 Sudeten crisis hinged on Allied reluctance to deter Hitler. Zelensky’s warning tries the same gambit—force partners to acknowledge deterrence failure before it is too late. The episode highlights two longer arcs: Russia’s post-1991 quest to reclaim perceived ‘historic lands,’ and Europe’s uneven march toward strategic autonomy as U.S. commitments wobble. If the EU supplies sustained money and air-defence shields, the conflict could resemble the Iran-Iraq slog of the 1980s—long, brutal, but contained; if not, a 1939-style cascade of territorial revisionism becomes likelier. On a 100-year horizon, the moment matters less for any single battlefield gain than for whether mid-21st-century Europe chooses collective security independent of Washington, or concedes a sphere of influence to Moscow.