U.S. Energy Secretary’s Caracas Mission and License 48 Kick-Start Post-Maduro Oil Reboot

Washington last tried something similar when it oversaw Iraq’s oil sector after the 2003 invasion; both moments combined regime removal with promises of quick production rebounds that ultimately took far longer and costlier than projected. Wright’s visit continues a century-long pattern—from the 1914 U.S. occupation of Veracruz to 1951’s Anglo-Iranian oil nationalisation crisis—where great powers intervene to secure hydrocarbon flows under the banner of “stability” and market relief. The current move reflects two structural trends: (1) the U.S. push for ‘energy dominance’—leveraging allied barrels (Guyana, Venezuela, Gulf states) to marginalise Russia and Iran—and (2) the tension between near-term fossil fuel supply politics and the longer-term global pivot toward decarbonisation. Whether this moment matters in 2126 hinges on if Venezuela becomes another briefly boosted petro-state or, like Saudi Arabia after the 1940s ARAMCO deal, embeds itself enduringly in the Western energy system—delaying or redirecting the world’s transition away from oil.