Business & Economics

Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema Misses Non-Inferiority in Head-to-Head Phase 3, $475 B Valuation Gain Evaporates

On 23 Feb 2026 Novo Nordisk revealed that CagriSema cut weight by 23% after 84 weeks but still under-performed Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, triggering a double-digit share plunge and wiping out the market-cap windfall Wegovy once created.

By Tomás Rydell

Focusing Facts

  1. REDEFINE-4 enrolled 809 adults with obesity; CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg produced 23.0% mean weight loss versus 25.5% for tirzepatide 15 mg, failing the non-inferiority primary endpoint.
  2. Novo Nordisk stock fell more than 16% on 23 Feb 2026, erasing roughly US$475 b in market value and sending the share price back to June 2021 levels.
  3. Despite the setback, Novo filed CagriSema with the FDA in Dec 2025 and plans a higher-dose Phase 3 trial starting H2 2026, with an FDA decision expected late 2026.

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