US Grants 30-Day Waiver for India to Take Stranded Russian Oil, Floats Wider ‘Unsanctioning’ Amid Hormuz Crisis

Washington’s partial walk-back on Russia oil sanctions rhymes with the 1956 Suez Crisis, when the Eisenhower administration quietly asked Saudi Arabia and Iran to boost output despite political misgivings to stabilise markets after Suez traffic halted. Like the 1973 embargo and 1990 Kuwait invasion, the episode exposes how maritime chokepoints can instantaneously override ideological sanction regimes: energy security trumps geopolitics when prices spike. The move also underscores a longer arc—over two decades the U.S. has repeatedly tightened sanctions (Iran 2010-present, Russia 2014-present) only to loosen them ad-hoc when market stress appears, eroding the credibility of sanctions as a strategic tool. On a 100-year horizon, the incident illustrates the fragility of a sanctions-centric order and the slow drift toward a multipolar oil market where India, China and others exploit arbitrage between rival blocs; it matters less for tomorrow’s prices than for the precedent it sets that even a sanction architect will suspend rules when a single waterway disruption threatens the global energy system.