Hormuz Blockade Forces Gulf Shut-ins, Sends Brent Back Above $100

Oil chokepoints have long amplified regional wars: the 1973 Arab embargo cut 4 mb/d and drove prices up 400 % in six months, while the 1984-88 “Tanker War” saw both Iran and Iraq mining the Gulf, pushing insurance costs above freight rates and triggering Operation Earnest Will. Today’s shutdown removes up to 20 mb/d—a scale without modern precedent—and collides with tightly balanced post-pandemic demand and still-underfilled strategic reserves after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock. The episode underscores two structural trends: 1) energy security increasingly hinges on a handful of maritime straits vulnerable to drones and low-cost missiles; 2) despite talk of decarbonisation, the world economy in 2026 remains acutely oil-dependent, especially in Asia, where over 90 % of Japan’s crude and roughly two-thirds of Korea’s still transit Hormuz. Whether this crisis catalyses accelerated diversification—alternative routes, fuels, or strategic buffers—or simply fades like previous spikes will shape inflation trajectories, great-power naval posture, and the pace of the energy transition over the next half-century. On a 100-year horizon, the event is a reminder that technological progress does not erase, and may even heighten, geostrategic choke-point risks entrenched since oil surpassed coal circa 1910.