Iran Strikes Six Gulf Tankers; Iraq Shuts Basra Terminals, Oil Tops $100

Tehran’s targeting of commercial shipping echoes the 1984-88 “Tanker War,” when Iran and Iraq repeatedly hit each other’s oil vessels, temporarily slashing Gulf exports by up to 25%. Then, as now, Washington hesitated before launching naval escorts—Operation Earnest Will began only after dozens of tankers had been struck. Today’s attacks sit atop longer arcs: a decade-long proliferation of cheap drones and a steady Iranian strategy of leveraging maritime chokepoints whenever its core interests are threatened (seen again in the 2019 limpet-mine incidents). Whether this moment proves pivotal depends on duration: a few weeks of $100 oil barely dents the century-scale energy transition, but a protracted Hormuz disruption could accelerate diversification away from seaborne Middle Eastern crude—much as the 1973 embargo catalyzed North Sea and Alaskan production and strategic stockpiles. In the sweep of 100 years, these strikes test the vulnerability of a fossil-fuel system already in slow decline, underscoring how geopolitics, technology, and energy security remain tightly braided even as the world eyes decarbonization.