IEA Sounds Alarm as Strait of Hormuz Closure Slashes 11 Mb/d and Triggers Record SPR Release

Chokepoint warfare has repeatedly rerouted the energy map—from the 1956 Suez Crisis that cut 2 Mb/d and accelerated super-tanker construction, to the 1984 “Tanker War” in the Iran-Iraq conflict that pushed insurers and navies into the Gulf. Today’s shutdown of Hormuz—artery for ~20 % of global liquids—revives that playbook but at a scale matching a world that now consumes twice the crude it did in 1979 and depends on LNG for baseload power. The episode underscores three structural trends: (1) geographic concentration risk: 80 % of seaborne oil still funnels through half-a-dozen straits; (2) strategic stockpiles as finite shock absorbers—OECD reserves cover barely 90 days of lost Hormuz flows; (3) the slow pivot to diversified, electrified energy systems that, despite headlines, remains under-invested. Whether this moment becomes another 1973—spurring efficiency standards and nuclear build-outs—or resembles the brief 1991 Gulf spike that faded in months will hinge on diplomacy, not barrels. On a century horizon, it is a reminder that fossil supply security remains a brittle foundation for the global economy even in an era of climate-driven transition.