U.S. Pays TotalEnergies $1 B to Surrender 2022 Offshore Wind Leases

Washington has paid companies not to build before—the 1933 Agricultural Adjustment Act paid farmers to plow under crops and the 1980 Synthetic Fuels Corporation later bought out uneconomical plants—but this is the first time a U.S. president has refunded competitive energy leases to derail a low-carbon technology. The episode sits at the intersection of three longer arcs: 1) the century-long boom-bust cycle of American industrial policy lurching between intervention for incumbents (oil in the 1920s, coal in the 1970s) and incentives for challengers (wind/solar tax credits of the 2000s); 2) escalating “permitting risk” that makes multidecade infrastructure bets contingent on each administration, undermining capital formation; and 3) the strategic pivot toward LNG as a geopolitical tool after Europe’s 2022 break with Russian gas. Whether this moment is a footnote or a fork in the road depends on 2028 politics: a future White House can re-auction the same seabed, but each postponement tightens the window for decarbonizing a grid expected to double in load by mid-century. In a 100-year view it exemplifies how political volatility—not technology—often dictates the pace of energy transitions.