Hormuz Blockade Spurs Record Asian Rush for Russian Energy

Oil has been rerouted before—Britain turned to Venezuelan crude during the 1956 Suez Crisis and the U.S. drew on the SPR in 1990 when Iraq closed the Gulf—but this is the first time Washington has simultaneously sanctioned and temporarily licensed the same barrels. Structurally, the episode accelerates two long-running trends: (1) the fracturing of the post-1974 petrodollar order as trade shifts to rupees, roubles and yuan; and (2) Asia’s growing leverage in spot markets as its refiners prove able to swap suppliers within weeks. Yet the boom has limits: Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out roughly 40 % of Russia’s export capacity, and Hormuz normally carries a fifth of global supply. If both bottlenecks persist, today’s scramble could echo the 1979 second oil shock—short-lived price spikes followed by demand destruction and a push for diversification. In a century-scale view, the incident underscores how naval chokepoints and sanctions remain decisive in energy geopolitics, but also how rapidly the center of gravity has migrated from Atlantic consumers to Indo-Pacific buyers who can play rival powers against each other to secure barrels.