Houthis Fire First Missiles of Iran War, Revive Bab al-Mandab Shipping Risk

Proxy forces using maritime chokepoints to punch above their weight is hardly new: in the 1956 Suez Crisis and the 1984-88 Iran-Iraq “Tanker War,” smaller actors leveraged narrow waterways to reshape great-power calculations. Today’s Houthi threat sits at the intersection of two century-long trends—globalised just-in-time trade dependent on a handful of straits, and Iran’s post-1979 reliance on non-state allies to extend reach without formal escalation. If both Hormuz (20 % of world oil) and Bab al-Mandab (gateway to Suez) are simultaneously compromised, the situation echoes the 1967-75 closure of the Suez Canal that forced tankers around the Cape, but with far tighter energy markets and missile technology that can reach ships hundreds of kilometres offshore. Over a 100-year horizon the episode underscores the enduring strategic value—and vulnerability—of maritime chokepoints; it may accelerate diversification of shipping routes, pipelines and even energy sources, yet also demonstrates how asymmetric warfare can still threaten the arteries of a hyper-connected global economy despite sophisticated air- and missile-defence systems.