Iran Barrages Gulf, Kuwaiti Refinery Burns as UN Stalls on Hormuz Fix

Blockading a vital choke-point to force diplomatic concessions echoes the 1984-88 “Tanker War,” when Iran sowed mines in Hormuz and drew U.S. escorts, and still more distantly the 1956 Suez Crisis that rewired global shipping lanes. Today, a newly multipolar Security Council—Russia, China and France now align to veto force—shows the post-1991 unipolar moment is over, limiting Washington’s ability to impose maritime solutions and shifting burdens to oil-importing Asia and Europe. Trump’s public goading for others to “take” Hormuz recalls 19th-century gunboat diplomacy yet collides with a century-long trend of U.S. guaranteeing sea lanes; the hesitation suggests those guarantees are eroding. Whether the refinery fires and bridge collapse matter in 2126 will depend less on the immediate death tolls than on whether this war accelerates permanent rerouting of energy flows (Saudi pipelines, Iraqi trucking) and speeds the global diversification away from oil—much as the 1973 embargo seeded today’s strategic reserves. If Hormuz remains volatile, markets may bake in chronic risk premiums, embedding this episode into the long arc of how maritime chokepoints shape great-power constraints.