Trump-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire Deal Triggers 12–15% Oil Price Crash

Great-power brinkmanship around shipping chokepoints is hardly new: in 1956 Britain and France tried to seize the Suez Canal, and in April 1988 the U.S. fought Iran in the same Gulf waters during Operation Praying Mantis—both episodes caused short-lived price spikes but accelerated long-term re-routing and diversification of energy supply. The 2026 ceasefire underscores two structural trends: 1) the weaponisation of economic interdependence—20 % of world oil transits Hormuz, so even a tweeted threat can jolt markets—and 2) the growing role of mid-tier powers (here, Pakistan) as crisis mediators when superpowers reach stalemate. Whether this moment matters in 2126 hinges on what follows: if the pause catalyses a durable security framework for the Gulf, it could mark the beginning of the end of single-point energy vulnerability; if it collapses like previous Trump deadlines (four since February), historians may view it as just another bout of social-media-driven volatility on the road to a post-oil economy already foreshadowed by the rapid global shift toward electrification and diversified energy routes.