ACI Europe Warns of EU-Wide Jet Fuel Shortage Within 3 Weeks if Hormuz Remains Blocked

This warning rhymes with the 1973–74 OPEC oil embargo, when a 5 % cut in Arab crude exports slashed trans-Atlantic flights and pushed jet fuel over $12/bbl (about $85 in today’s money). Like then, a chokepoint in the Gulf is exposing how energy-importing blocs can be held hostage by geopolitics. Yet the pattern has deepened: after decades of refinery closures—EU kerosene output has fallen ~35 % since 2005—Europe now depends on just-in-time seaborne supply for a quarter of its aviation fuel, mirroring the de-industrialisation trend seen in other strategic sectors. The disruption therefore magnifies three long-term forces: 1) the fragility of globalized supply chains passing through a handful of maritime straits, 2) the shift of refining capacity toward Asia and the Middle East, and 3) mounting pressure to accelerate synthetic and sustainable aviation fuel deployment. On a century horizon this episode may be remembered less for a summer of cancelled holidays and more as a catalyst that nudged regulators to treat kerosene security like electricity or gas, potentially hastening the structural decline of fossil jet fuel in European skies.