Energy-Shock Inflation Rebounds as Straits of Hormuz Crisis Squeezes Fuel Costs

Energy chokepoints have repeatedly upended price stability: the 1973–74 OPEC embargo sent OECD inflation from 6 % to 13 %, while Iraq’s 1990 Kuwait invasion pushed oil above $40 and lifted U.S. CPI from 4.7 % to 6.1 % within a year. Today’s flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz—through which ~20 % of global crude moves—revives that pattern, exposing how even modest physical supply risks feed instantly into consumer prices worldwide via transport and fertilizer costs. The data from Prague and Bucharest, echoed in the World Bank’s Africa brief, show that the disinflation narrative of late-2025 was fragile; globalised fuel supply remains the inflation transmission belt. Over a 100-year horizon, the episode illustrates the structural vulnerability of petro-linked consumer baskets and foreshadows the strategic premium countries are likely to pay until they either diversify energy routes or complete a transition away from hydrocarbons—a process that, pace past transitions from coal to oil (1900-1950), could take decades rather than years.