IEA Warns Europe’s Jet Fuel Could Run Dry by End-May if Hormuz Stays Shut

Chokepoint energy crises have shaped geopolitics before—the 1956 Suez closure stalled 10 % of western oil for five months, and the 1984–88 “Tanker War” in the Gulf repeatedly halved tanker traffic—yet neither cut aviation fuel as abruptly as today’s near-total Hormuz shutdown that covers one-fifth of world oil. This episode underscores a longer trend: ever-higher dependence on fragile maritime corridors even as OECD inventories fall and airlines run just-in-time fuel logistics. It also accelerates two systemic shifts already under way: (1) a push toward non-hydrocarbon aviation (synthetic SAF, electric short-haul, reborn nuclear debate) and (2) strategic diversification of supply routes via pipelines and Arctic or East-West land corridors. On a century scale, the moment may be a pivot comparable to 1973, when an oil shock catalysed efficiency norms and North Sea exploration; if Europe scrambles now into deep decarbonisation and redundancy, this crunch could be remembered less for cancelled holidays than for hastening the twilight of oil in commercial flight. Conversely, if the strait reopens quickly, the panic may fade like previous scares, illustrating how headlines can overstate immediate shortages while obscuring structural vulnerabilities.