Hormuz Oil Flow Surges Past 10 m b/d After Trump–Iran Ceasefire

Great-power muscle-flexing to keep oil moving through choke points is hardly new: Britain’s 1914 seizure of the Shatt-al-Arab waterway and the U.S.-flag convoys during the 1984-88 “Tanker War” both used naval cover to blunt Iranian leverage, only to see Tehran adapt with asymmetric attacks. Today’s rebound echoes those episodes yet unfolds in an era when Gulf oil’s share of global energy is structurally declining and drone warfare cheapens disruption. If free passage is codified, it would reaffirm the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea norm that transit straits remain toll-free—limiting future attempts by regional powers to monetize chokepoints. A century from now, historians may view this as one of the last major U.S. naval interventions primarily about oil, marking the transition toward diversified energy routes and the waning strategic centrality of Hormuz rather than the opening of a new Pax Americana.