US Launches Second Night of Strikes on Iran, Scrapping June Ceasefire

Great-power tussles over maritime chokepoints are hardly new: Britain’s 1956 seizure of the Suez Canal and Washington’s 1988 “Operation Praying Mantis” against Iran both showed how control of a waterway can trigger direct strikes and rapid escalation. The 2026 episode fits that lineage, underscoring a century-long pattern in which oil routes like Hormuz serve as geopolitical pressure valves when deterrence frays. Trump’s public scrapping of a ceasefire less than a month old reflects a broader post-Cold War trend: agreements hammered out quickly under crisis often collapse once domestic hawks on each side perceive strategic ambiguity—mirroring the 2018 U.S. exit from the JCPOA and Russia–Ukraine ceasefire failures in 2015. Whether these strikes matter in 2126 hinges on two structural forces: first, the still-unresolved shift from hydrocarbon dependence to diversified energy sources, which could eventually erode Hormuz’s leverage; second, the slow erosion of U.S. hegemony, making “freedom of navigation” a contested rather than universally accepted norm. If shipping disruptions accelerate a global pivot away from oil, this night of bombing may mark a stepping-stone in the long decline of oil-based power politics; if not, it is another page in the recurring tanker wars that flare every few decades.