Business & Economics
Gulf States Fast-Track Seven Pipeline Projects to Circumvent Strait of Hormuz
Between 20-23 July 2026, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq moved multiple pipeline expansions onto accelerated wartime timetables that could reroute up to 7.3 million barrels per day of Gulf crude away from the now-shuttered Strait of Hormuz by 2028.
Focusing Facts
- Goldman Sachs projects 3.8 mb/d of new bypass capacity online by end-2027 and 7.3 mb/d—roughly 60 % of the Gulf’s pre-war 23 mb/d exports—by end-2028.
- The UAE’s $3 billion, 300 km Habshan-Fujairah ‘West-East’ pipeline is 50 % built; ADNOC has been ordered to finish it by mid-2027, doubling the country’s non-Hormuz export capacity to ≥3.6 mb/d.
- Iraq, with U.S. backing, is negotiating twin Mediterranean corridors—Basra-Haditha-Ceyhan and Basra-Haditha-Baniyas—each targeting up to 2 mb/d, after war losses cut its output to 1.9 mb/d in June.
Context
Oil powers have scrambled to diversify routes before: Saudi finished its original East-West line in 1981 during the Iran-Iraq War, and Egypt’s 1957 Suez closure pushed tankers around the Cape. Today’s rush reprises those episodes but at drone-age speed: precision strikes in 2019 and again in April 2026 on Saudi pumping stations proved that even land lines invite asymmetric attack, echoing how railheads became WWI targets a century ago. Strategically, this is a structural pivot from an ocean chokepoint-centric system toward a redundant, continent-spanning network—yet every new mile of pipe shifts the map of winners (Saudi/UAE) and losers (Kuwait/Bahrain) and locks in billions of sunk cost just as the IEA forecasts peak oil demand in the early 2030s. On a 100-year horizon, the episode may matter less for how much crude moves next decade than for cementing the idea—borne out since the 1973 embargo—that energy arteries are weapons, and that resilience, not cheapest delivery, rules geopolitical infrastructure choices.
Perspectives
Industry trade press
maritime & business outlets such as Seatrade Maritime and The Journal — Rapidly-expanding pipeline networks will permanently re-route a large share of Gulf crude away from the Strait of Hormuz within just a few years, reshaping tanker trades and insulating world oil supply from the waterway. These publications cater to shipowners, traders and investors, so they accentuate the scale and speed of projects and the commercial upside while playing down engineering delays or political obstacles highlighted elsewhere.
Security-focused energy analysts
e.g., Hellenic Shipping News commentary — Building extra pipelines is at best a geopolitical hedge because pumping stations, terminals and Red Sea routes remain just as vulnerable to Iran’s drones and allied militias as tankers in Hormuz. By stressing residual threats, this camp bolsters the relevance of its risk analysis and of Western military protection, potentially understating the economic rationale Gulf producers have for the projects.
Regional political observers
Middle East Eye — The pipeline race is redrawing Gulf power dynamics, entrenching Saudi-UAE dominance while leaving smaller states like Kuwait and Bahrain exposed, yet all routes still sit within reach of Iranian missiles. Outlet often spotlights Gulf inequality and Western backing of monarchies, so it frames infrastructure as a zero-sum geopolitical contest and highlights vulnerabilities to question the strategic wisdom of U.S.-allied producers.
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