Shipping Collapse in Hormuz & Bab el-Mandeb after Houthi Tanker Strike Despite U.S.–Iran Talks

History rhymes: the abrupt traffic collapse echoes the 1984-88 ‘Tanker War,’ when attacks on Gulf shipping cut flows by ~25 % and spurred the U.S. to launch Operation Earnest Will, and the 1956 Suez Crisis when a single chokepoint closure rewired global tanker routes for a decade. 2026’s seesaw between diplomatic overtures and asymmetric strikes highlights two structural trends: 1) small non-state or proxy forces using cheap missiles and drones can still choke trillion-dollar energy arteries, and 2) the world’s dependence on two narrow waterways—Hormuz moves ~20 % of hydrocarbons, Bab el-Mandeb ~9 %—remains a strategic vulnerability despite LNG, shale, and renewables growth. Whether the current talks produce lasting joint management (a first since the 1971 British withdrawal) or collapse into wider conflict will influence insurance premia, naval deployments, and investment in alternative routes (Iraq-Turkey pipeline, UAE’s Fujairah bypass) for decades. On a 100-year timescale, this episode may be remembered less for the missiles than for accelerating the long, bumpy shift away from oil-centric security paradigms toward a multipolar, energy-diversified maritime order.