US Signals Blockade Lift as Oman-Iran Strait of Hormuz Deal Nears

Waterway chokepoints have regularly become arenas of brinkmanship: during the 1984-88 “Tanker War” the U.S. re-flagged Kuwaiti ships and in July 1988 the USS Vincennes downed an Iranian airliner—both events followed by de-escalatory deals. Today’s prospective Oman-Iran arrangement similarly tempers months of U.S. “maximum pressure” blockades by shifting responsibility for security to a regional duo, hinting at Washington’s gradual retrenchment and giving Muscat a mediating role reminiscent of its 1970s Dhofar-era alliance with Tehran. The announcement also collides with fresh regional defense pacts (e.g., the 2026 Makkah Joint Defence Agreement) and perennial nuclear accusations, showing how Gulf states hedge when U.S. policy oscillates. Over a 100-year horizon, the episode tests whether the Persian Gulf will remain an American-policed energy artery or evolve toward multipolar stewardship just as global demand for oil may peak; a successful deal could mark the beginning of that long transition, while failure would reinforce the century-old pattern of external navies dictating Gulf security.