White House 'Great Transshipment Scam' Report Puts India in Tier-1 Over Alleged China Tariff Evasion

Great-power tariff crackdowns often spawn workaround routes: after the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act, U.S. Customs traced ‘Canadian front’ wheat shipped from the Prairie Provinces via Winnipeg to avoid duties; in the 1990s, U.S. textile quotas pushed Chinese garments to relabel through Macau and Saipan. The 2026 accusations reprise that pattern, but in an era of hyper-segmented global value chains where 60-70 % of world trade is in parts and components, not finished goods. The clash pits a rules-of-origin system built for 20th-century assembly lines against today’s distributed manufacturing, and foreshadows AI-driven border policing that could re-nationalize supply chains. Whether this moment is a footnote or a hinge depends on if the U.S. ultimately rewrites origin rules; a hard turn would echo the irreversible realignments that followed the Navigation Acts (1651-1849) and could, over decades, shrink the liberal trade order that underpinned the post-1945 boom.