Oil Tops $95 After U.S.–Iran Strikes Revive Hormuz Chokepoint Risk

Oil has jumped during every major Gulf flashpoint—from the 1973 Arab-Israeli war’s embargo (prices quadrupled within months) to the 1984-88 ‘Tanker War’ when insurance rates, not barrels lost, drove a 20 % premium. The current spike again shows that markets trade headlines more than tonnage: flows through Hormuz actually hit a post-conflict high even as prices surged on fear. Structurally, it underscores two intertwined trends: 1) the enduring leverage of narrow maritime chokepoints in a still-oil-dependent world economy; 2) the shrinking spare capacity of OPEC+ after years of under-investment, which magnifies any geopolitical tremor. Whether this week matters in a century depends on how fast large importers decarbonise; if electrification accelerates, today’s $5 swings will look like the dying echoes of the petroleum age—yet if transition stalls, the Strait of Hormuz, like the Bosporus in 1914, may remain a fulcrum of power well into 2100.