Brent Pops Back Above $100 After U.S. Sinks Five Iranian Tankers and Houthis Hit Saudi Energy Hub

This flare-up echoes the 1984-1988 “Tanker War,” when Iran and Iraq attacked more than 400 vessels and briefly halved Gulf exports, driving spot prices up 30 %. Then, as now, the fight was less about sinking ships than weaponizing insurance costs and chokepoint psychology. The current episode sits at the intersection of three longer arcs: the decades-long shift of U.S. power projection from land wars to maritime denial; the slow but relentless diversification of Asia’s energy sourcing; and the structural under-investment that has kept OPEC+ spare capacity near multi-decade lows. Whether Brent closes at $100 or $120 this quarter may matter less on a 100-year horizon than the precedent of targeting civilian energy assets with precision missiles—normalizing a playbook that could make every future Strait crisis faster-moving and harder to hedge. If the world ultimately pivots to electrification, historians may see 2026 as another inflection like 1973 or 1990: a shock that accelerated, rather than reversed, the long exit from oil dependence.