Brent Surges Past $98 While India’s Oil Basket Tops $100 Amid Fresh US–Iran Clashes

Oil spikes driven by Gulf flashpoints are hardly new: during the 1980–88 Iran-Iraq War, threats to the Strait of Hormuz helped send spot crude from about $14 in 1978 to over $39 in 1981 (≈$120 in 2026 dollars). Similar but smaller jumps followed the 2019 tanker attacks and the 2022 Ukraine invasion. The present run-up reflects two structural forces: 1) chronic under-investment in spare OPEC+ capacity after the 2020 price crash, leaving the market more sensitive to disruptions; 2) heavy Asian reliance—India’s 89% import dependence—on Hormuz flows that still carry roughly 20% of seaborne oil. Whether this week proves pivotal depends on duration: a brief flare-up may echo the mid-2019 blip that retraced within a month, but a protracted US-Iran proxy fight could accelerate the century-long pattern in which chokepoint conflicts catalyze diversification—from the Suez pipeline in 1957 to today’s push for electrification and non-Hormuz routes. In a hundred-year lens, today’s $100 oil is a reminder that geopolitical risk premiums persist even as demand gradually shifts away from fossil fuels.