US Brokers Ukraine–Russia Talks in Abu Dhabi for 10–11 Nov 2026

Great-power mediation of European wars has a long pedigree: the 1815 Congress of Vienna fixed borders after the Napoleonic conflicts, the 1995 Dayton Accords (initialed 21 Nov 1995) ended Bosnia’s war, and the 2020 Minsk-II collapse showed the perils of half-measures. Hosting the meeting in neutral Abu Dhabi echoes Camp David 1978, when a third party’s soil helped opponents negotiate without appearing to capitulate. The venue also signals the Gulf’s rise as a diplomatic hub in a multipolar energy-rich world. On a 100-year arc, this episode tests whether the United States can still translate leverage—sanctions relief for diesel, weapons supplies to Ukraine—into durable settlements amid an era of waning Western dominance and shifting security architectures. Should the talks fail, the conflict risks hardening into a frozen war akin to Korea after 1953; success could mirror the 1973 Paris Accords that, despite imperfections, set a timetable for U.S. exit from Vietnam. Either outcome will shape Europe’s security order and Washington’s credibility as an arbiter well into the 22nd century.