Trump Administration Moves to Cut 2031 CAFE Target to 34.5 MPG and End Credit-Trading

Washington has repeatedly seesawed on CAFE: Reagan’s DOT froze standards in 1986; Congress pushed them to 35 MPG by 2020 in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act; Trump’s first term (2018-20) cut Obama’s targets before Biden restored them in 2024. The 2025 rollback reprises that tug-of-war, revealing deeper structural forces: 1) a century-long dependence on petroleum infrastructure that resists rapid electrification; 2) regulatory uncertainty that automakers exploit to delay costly transitions; 3) partisan swings that make long-horizon investments (batteries, supply chains) risky for both Detroit and Silicon Valley EV firms. Like the 1970s oil-shock CAFE birth or California’s 2004 ZEV mandate, today’s decision tests whether federal rules can steer technology or merely chase voter sentiment and fuel prices. On a 100-year arc, the proposal may prove a historical footnote if global battery costs keep falling—much as early-20th-century horse-carriage tariffs could not stem the rise of the Model T—yet it underscores how U.S. climate policy remains contingent on four-year electoral cycles rather than durable consensus.