PLA J-15 Locks Fire-Control Radar on Japanese F-15s near Okinawa, Triggering Diplomatic Protests

Great-power forces playing chicken over the Ryukyus is not new: in January 2013 a Chinese frigate lit up a Japanese destroyer’s radar, and in 1983 Soviet interceptors similarly locked on U.S. RC-135s over the Sea of Japan—both standoffs stopped short of firing but edged norms toward acceptability. The 2025 incident fits a decade-long trend of PLA gray-zone tactics—measured escalations just below the shooting threshold—to probe alliance responses and contest Japan’s administrative control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu area while pressuring any coalition willing to aid Taiwan. Viewed on a 100-year arc, such radar locks are tactical sparks in a strategic shift: China’s blue-water navy and carrier force are now routinely operating beyond the first island chain, confronting a Japan that is re-arming and weaving tighter security networks with Australia and the U.S. Whether this episode becomes footnote or fuse depends less on the weekend’s brinkmanship than on whether both sides institutionalize crisis-management channels; absent that, the pattern echoes the pre-1914 naval rivalry where repeated “incidents” normalized risk until one finally miscalculated.