Hainan FTP Activates Island-Wide Special Customs Regime, Raising Zero-Tariff Goods to 74%

China has tried to leverage coastal enclaves before—Shenzhen SEZ in 1980, Pudong in 1990, and the 2013 Shanghai FTZ—all promised liberalization within defined borders; some, like Shenzhen, blossomed, others, like Shanghai FTZ, under-delivered once capital-account realities set in. Hainan’s 2025 customs shift echoes those efforts but layers on a dual-circulation logic: it aims to be simultaneously “inside China, outside its customs wall,” a concept reminiscent of Hong Kong’s 1842–1997 entrepôt role and Dubai’s 1985 Jebel Ali model. Structurally, the move reflects two longer arcs—the region-wide tilt toward mega-free-trade blocs (RCEP, CPTPP) and Beijing’s push from incentive-based to rules-based openness to counter US-led decoupling. Over a 100-year horizon, if Hainan can truly balance freer flows of goods, capital and data with national security controls, it could reroute South China Sea logistics and offer ASEAN a non-dollar financial hub; if not, it risks becoming another property-driven zone of unrealized ambition. The historical record suggests that institutional depth, not headline tariff cuts, will decide which path prevails.